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Population and development
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A country's births, deaths and age structure change as it develops. The demographic transition model shows how.
Key measures
Birth rate and death rate: number per 1,000 people per year.
Natural increase = birth rate − death rate. Divide by 10 to give a percentage.
Fertility rate: average number of children per woman (about 2.1 keeps a population stable).
Infant mortality: deaths of babies under 1 per 1,000 live births.
Maternal mortality: deaths of mothers linked to pregnancy or birth per 100,000 live births.
Natural increase = birth rate − death rate. Divide by 10 to give a percentage.
Fertility rate: average number of children per woman (about 2.1 keeps a population stable).
Infant mortality: deaths of babies under 1 per 1,000 live births.
Maternal mortality: deaths of mothers linked to pregnancy or birth per 100,000 live births.
The demographic transition model
Stage 1: high birth and death rates; low growth.
Stage 2: death rate falls (better food, water and healthcare); rapid growth.
Stage 3: birth rate falls (contraception, education, women working); growth slows.
Stage 4: low birth and death rates; low growth.
Stage 5: birth rate below death rate; population may fall and age.
Stage 2: death rate falls (better food, water and healthcare); rapid growth.
Stage 3: birth rate falls (contraception, education, women working); growth slows.
Stage 4: low birth and death rates; low growth.
Stage 5: birth rate below death rate; population may fall and age.
Population structures
Developing countries: high fertility, a youthful population, a wide-based pyramid, and higher infant and maternal mortality.
Developed countries: low fertility, an ageing population, a narrower base, and low infant and maternal mortality.
An ageing population raises the cost of pensions and care; a youthful one needs schools and jobs.
Developed countries: low fertility, an ageing population, a narrower base, and low infant and maternal mortality.
An ageing population raises the cost of pensions and care; a youthful one needs schools and jobs.
A country has a birth rate of 32 per 1,000 and a death rate of 9 per 1,000. Find the natural increase rate as a percentage.
- Natural increase = 32 − 9 = 23 per 1,000
- As a percentage: 23 ÷ 10
Answer: 2.3%
Birth and death rates are per 1,000; natural increase = birth rate − death rate. Fertility, infant mortality and maternal mortality are key welfare indicators. The demographic transition model has five stages. Developing countries tend to be youthful with high fertility; developed countries are ageing with low fertility.
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